Commitment Mapping (Corrected)
Confirmed via Skio: initial Shopify purchase = Cycle 1. Commitment = 3 total cycles. 55% of subs on 12-week intervals means the commitment spans 9 months for the majority, not 4.5.
| Cohort Col | Cycle | Experience | Commitment | Timeline (12wk) | Timeline (6wk) |
|---|
| (not in data) | 1 | Initial purchase | 🔒 1 of 3 | Week 0 | Week 0 |
| "1 order" | 2 | 1st recurring | 🔒 2 of 3 | Week 12 | Week 6 |
| "2 orders" | 3 | 2nd recurring — fulfilled | 🔒 3 of 3 | Week 24 | Week 12 |
| "3 orders" | 4 | First voluntary | 🔓 | Week 36 | Week 18 |
| "4+ orders" | 5+ | True voluntary | 🔓 | Week 48+ | Week 24+ |
3.23
Avg orders — commitment forces 3
£56.21
AOV (2-3 products typical)
£181.72
LTV per subscriber
3.3%
Real save rate (excl. splash)
93%
of subscriber LTV comes from forced commitment, not genuine retention
Avg 3.23 orders vs 3.00 committed = only 0.23 voluntary orders (£12.93 per sub)
The Split Cliff
Average of mature cohorts · % of original subs still active
Churn at Each Transition
| Transition | Status | Churn | What's Happening |
|---|
| 1→2 | 🔒 Committed | 17.5% | Forced dissatisfaction: CS, chargebacks, skips despite lock-in |
| 2→3 | 🔓 1st voluntary | 25.2% | Commitment expires — immediate cancellers who were waiting |
| 3→4 | 🔓 + delayed cliff | 46.1% | Worst transition. Delayed cliff + "surprise charge" cancellers |
| 4→5 | 🔓 True vol. | 44.8% | Still normalising |
| 5→6 | 🔓 True vol. | 47.7% | Steady-state. Survivors are genuinely loyal. |
Cohort Quality Deteriorating
| Cohort | Subs | @ 2 ord | @ 4 ord | Combined Loss |
|---|
| Oct-24 | 842 | 85.0% | 48.7% | 36pp (43%) |
| Jan-25 | 1,533 | 82.0% | 41.4% | 41pp (50%) |
| May-25 | 1,444 | 79.6% | 30.5% | 49pp (62%) |
| Aug-25 | 1,465 | 71.7% | 12.6% | 59pp (82%) |
Cancel Reason Breakdown — 12 Months Real Data
6,134
Real cancel attempts (excl. splash)
74%
CRM-addressable reasons
203
Actually saved (excl. splash)
Cancel Reasons — by CRM-Addressable Category
74% of cancellations have a reason the CRM flow or cancel-save mechanism could address. But current save rates across these categories are terrible — ranging from 0% to 6.64%.
Frequency Mismatch
"I have more than I need"
1,672 · Save: 6.64%
Habit Failure
"No longer use this product"
1,153 · Save: 1.99%
Product-Market Fit
"Don't suit" + "Want different"
948 · Save: 4.96%
Price Sensitivity
"This is too expensive"
745 · Save: 0.00%
Other / Unaddressable
No reason, accident, other
1,616 · Save: 1.11%
📦 #1: "I Already Have More Than I Need" — 27% of Cancels
The single biggest cancel reason. 1,672 sessions, 6.64% save rate, 1,561 cancellations. But only 21 people were saved by frequency edit across all reasons. 1,651 people cancelled with a completely solvable problem.
🚨 The frequency gap is your single biggest retention opportunity
55% of subs are on 12-week intervals. For a single-product sub (cleanser), 12 weeks of product may last 16-20 weeks of actual use. Product accumulates, bathroom shelf fills up, customer feels wasteful, and cancels. The cancel flow offers "skip" but NOT a prominent frequency edit. The data proves it: 793 saved by skip but only 21 by frequency change. You're treating a chronic problem (wrong frequency) with an acute fix (one-off skip).
✅ CRM fix: proactive frequency check + redesigned cancel intercept
(1) Mid-cycle email: "Running low or still have plenty?" with one-click frequency extension (12wk → 16wk or 20wk). (2) In cancel flow: when reason = "too much product", make frequency edit the FIRST option — not skip. Skip delays the cancel, frequency edit prevents it. (3) Pre-charge email: "You have [X] weeks until your next delivery. Need more time? Adjust your schedule." If 20% of "too much product" cancellers were saved: 334 subs × £56.21 × 2 orders = £37,548.
🚫 #2: "I No Longer Use This Product" — 19% of Cancels
1,153 sessions. 1.99% save rate (23 saves). These people stopped using the product entirely — it's sitting in their bathroom unused. This is habit failure.
⚠️ This is the problem the CRM flow solves proactively
By the time someone selects "I no longer use this product," they've already disengaged weeks or months ago. The CRM flow's Week 1 check-in, Week 2 social proof, and mid-cycle nudges exist specifically to catch habit drop-off BEFORE it becomes a cancel reason. The 12-week interval makes this worse — 3 months between deliveries gives people much more time to fall out of habit.
✅ CRM fix: mid-cycle check-ins + usage nudges
(1) Week 4 + Week 8 check-ins for 12-week subs ("How's your routine going?"). (2) Results-focused content showing what happens at Week 4, 8, 12. (3) Cancel intercept: "Not using it? Let us help you restart. Free 15-min skin consult with our team." Swap to different product in range.
💰 #3: "Too Expensive" — 12% of Cancels, ZERO Saves
745 sessions, 0% save rate. Not a single person was saved. No downgrade mechanism, no frequency extension offer, no value reinforcement. Every one of these 745 people walked away with no counter-offer.
🚨 Zero saves on price is a system failure, not a customer problem
At £56.21 every 12 weeks, that's ~£244/year. At £56.21 every 6 weeks, it's ~£487/year. Price-sensitive customers on 6-week intervals are paying double. Extending frequency alone halves the annual cost. But the cancel flow doesn't offer this.
✅ CRM fix: tiered save offers for price reason
When reason = "too expensive": (1) "Extend your delivery to every [16/20] weeks — same products, lower annual cost." (2) "Remove a product to reduce your order to ~£[X]." (3) "Switch to a single hero product at £[X]/delivery." (4) If nothing works: "Pause for 3 months, come back when it works for you." Even a 15% save rate = 112 subs × £56.21 × 2 orders = £12,591.
Save Mechanism Performance
88% of all saves come from skip. But skip is a band-aid — each skip save only generates £20.48 of additional revenue. Swap is 4× more valuable per save.
| Mechanism | Count | % of Saves | Rev After | Orders After | Rev per Save | Assessment |
|---|
| Skip | 793 | 88% | £16,240 | 370 | £20.48 | High volume, low quality — delays churn |
| Swap product | 74 | 8% | £6,200 | 122 | £83.78 | 4× more valuable — addresses root cause |
| Edit frequency | 21 | 2% | £604 | 14 | £28.76 | Massively underutilised despite 27% citing frequency |
| Contact support | 8 | 1% | £0 | 0 | £0 | Not generating value |
| Change date | 4 | <1% | £225 | 5 | £56.20 | Good quality, rare |
💡 The hierarchy of save quality
Swap (£83.78/save) > Change date (£56.20) > Frequency (£28.76) > Skip (£20.48). The cancel flow should prioritise reason-matched interventions over default skip. A subscriber who swaps stays 3.5× longer than one who skips.
Redesigned Cancel-Save Flow (Data-Driven)
Current flow: reason capture → generic save offers. Redesigned: reason-specific intercepts with the highest-value mechanism surfaced first.
| Cancel Reason | % of Cancels | Current Save | Priority Intercept | Target Save |
|---|
| Too much product | 27% | 6.64% |
"Extend to every [16/20] weeks" (one-click frequency edit) → then skip |
20%+ |
| No longer use | 19% | 1.99% |
"Let us help: free skin consult" → swap product → pause 3 months |
10%+ |
| Don't suit / want different | 15% | 4.96% |
"Swap to [product]" (one-click) → free mini of alternative → consult |
15%+ |
| Too expensive | 12% | 0.00% |
"Extend frequency to halve annual cost" → remove a product → downgrade |
15%+ |
| No reason / other | 26% | 1.11% |
"Before you go: skip, pause, or swap?" (general menu) |
5%+ |
✅ If redesigned cancel flow hits these targets
Too much product: 1,672 × 20% = 334 saved × £112 (2 orders) = £37,548
No longer use: 1,153 × 10% = 115 saved × £112 = £12,907
Don't suit / different: 948 × 15% = 142 saved × £112 = £15,928
Too expensive: 745 × 15% = 112 saved × £112 = £12,534
Total: ~703 additional saves/year = ~£78,900 retained revenue. This is against a baseline of 203 real saves currently.
Subscription Economics — Real Data
| Component | Orders | Revenue/Sub | % of LTV |
|---|
| Committed (forced) | 3.00 | £168.63 | 93% |
| Voluntary (earned) | 0.23 | £12.93 | 7% |
| Total | 3.23 | £181.56 | 100% |
12-Week Interval Impact on Revenue Timing
| 6-Week Interval (45%) | 12-Week Interval (55%) |
|---|
| Commitment period | 18 weeks (4.5 months) | 36 weeks (9 months) |
| Revenue rate | £56.21/month | £28.11/month |
| Annual revenue (if retained) | ~£487/year | ~£244/year |
| Time to 1st voluntary choice | Week 18 | Week 36 (9 months) |
| Gap between charges | 6 weeks | 12 weeks |
| Habit maintenance risk | Medium | High — 12 weeks to forget |
⚠️ 12-week intervals create the frequency mismatch problem
At 12 weeks, customers receive product every 3 months. Many skincare products (especially cleansers) may last 6-8 weeks of daily use, meaning product accumulates. This directly explains why "I have more than I need" is the #1 cancel reason (27%). The CRM flow must include proactive frequency adjustment for 12-week subs — ideally BEFORE the accumulation triggers cancellation.
Routine Expansion Opportunity
| Type | AOV | 3-Cycle LTV | 12-Cycle LTV |
|---|
| Single product | ~£19-35 | £57-105 | £228-420 |
| Current average | £56.21 | £168.63 | £674.52 |
| Full routine | ~£133 | £399 | £1,596 |
✅ AOV uplift is the biggest revenue lever
£10 AOV increase across 54,834 annual orders = £548K. £20 increase = £1.1M. Even modest routine expansion dramatically outweighs retention-only improvements.
Financial Impact of Removing Commitment
| Stage | Current (locked) | Projected (no lock + CRM) | Lost Rev/Month |
|---|
| Cycle 1→2 | ~96% | 78-82% | ~£12,250 |
| Cycle 2→3 | ~81% | 62-68% | ~£12,930 |
| Total at risk | | | £25,200/month = £302K/year |
✅ The combined CRM programme value
CRM retention recovery (40-60% of £302K gap): £120-180K/year
Routine expansion (Track B, £10-20 AOV uplift): £548K-1.1M/year
Redesigned cancel-save flow: ~£79K/year
Total programme value: £747K-1.36M/year
Event-Driven CRM Flow (Corrected for 12-Week Intervals)
Critical change from v3: the flow is now event-driven, not fixed-day. Because 55% of subs are on 12-week intervals and 45% on ~6-week, fixed-day timing creates huge gaps for the majority. Emails are now timed relative to purchase and billing events.
⚠️ The 12-week gap problem
For a 12-week subscriber, there's a ~10 week gap between "Day 14 social proof" and the pre-charge email. That's 10+ weeks of silence during the most critical habit-building window. The fix: add mid-cycle check-ins that trigger based on interval length. 12-week subs get Week 4, Week 6, and Week 8 touchpoints that 6-week subs don't need.
Phase 1: "Welcome to the Routine" (Days 0–7)
Same for all intervals. Transform purchase into commitment to a system.
"Your Flawless365 journey starts now"
EMAILSMS
Membership welcome. Routine card visual. "Your skin in 90 days" timeline. Dr Sam video. Portal tour.
"Here's how to get the most from your routine"
EMAIL
Application guide with GIFs. AM/PM visual with routine gaps for partial subs. Purge warning (Clarity).
"Your next 3 deliveries — here's the plan"
EMAIL
Next 3 delivery dates. Usage rates per product. NEW: "Does [X] weeks between deliveries feel right? Adjust anytime." One-click frequency change. Plant the seed early.
Phase 2: "Build the Habit" (Week 1 — Pre-1st Recurring)
This phase adapts by interval. 12-week subs get additional mid-cycle touchpoints to prevent habit loss.
"How's your first week going?"
EMAILSMS
Normalise experiences. 1-question survey. "Concerned" → save sub-flow.
"This is what Week 2 looks like"
EMAIL
B&A at Week 2. Reviews. Subscriber count.
"Your routine is working — here's how to accelerate it"
EMAIL
Science-backed expansion nudge. Visual with current products + gaps. One-click add or upgrade.
"Why your routine works (the science)"
EMAIL
Mechanism of action. "Why order matters." Switching cost.
"Month 1 down — your skin at Week 4"
EMAIL
What to expect at this stage. B&A. "Still going strong with your routine? If anything's changed, we're here." Route-specific content.
"The 6-week mark: where it gets real"
EMAIL
"Weeks 6-8 is when most people start seeing visible changes." B&A. Photo prompt. "Running low or still have plenty?" — frequency adjustment link.
"How's your supply looking?"
EMAIL
CRITICAL: Directly addresses the #1 cancel reason. "Your next refill is in ~4 weeks. Running low? Move it forward. Still have plenty? Extend to every 16 weeks. Your routine, your rhythm." One-click: "I need it sooner" / "I need more time" / "Perfect timing."
"Your refill ships in 5 days — £[price]"
EMAILSMS at D-3
Transparency. Skip/delay/swap links. NEW: "Need more time between deliveries? Adjust your frequency." Usage validation. Send for EVERY recurring charge.
Phase 3: "Prove the Results" (Post-1st Recurring — Pre-2nd Recurring)
Photo prompt. Route-specific B&A. Review request. "How's your frequency working out?"
Stronger expansion. Partial vs full routine B&A. Sub-exclusive: 25% off first delivery of added product. One-click add.
Loss aversion. Retinoid regression science. Consistency timeline. Emotional replacement for mechanical commitment.
"How's your supply?" Frequency adjustment. Same framework as E6c.
Pre-charge + milestone: "3 deliveries of consistency." Savings reinforcement. Frequency check. Under current model: commitment expires here.
Phase 4: Veteran (Post-Commitment)
VIP recognition. Priority launches, sub-only pricing, Dr Sam Q&A. Referral: "Give £10 off."
Seasonal review. Savings milestone. Routine evolution. Track B holdouts: quarterly expansion nudges.
🚨 Redesigned Cancel-Save Flow
Based on real cancel data. Current 3.3% save rate → target 12-15%. Reason-specific, not generic.
"I have more than I need" (27%):
① "Extend to every [16/20/24] weeks" (one-click frequency edit, NOT skip)
② Then offer skip as secondary
③ Then pause 1-3 months
"No longer use this product" (19%):
① "Free 15-min skin consult — let us help you restart"
② Swap to different product
③ Pause 3 months with "restart reminder"
"Don't suit / want different" (15%):
① One-click swap to alternative (surface top swaps from data)
② Free mini of alternative to try
③ CS escalation for skin concerns
"Too expensive" (12%):
① "Extend frequency to halve annual cost"
② "Remove [product] to reduce order to £[X]"
③ "Switch to single hero product at £[X]/delivery"
④ Pause 3 months
"No reason / other" (26%):
① "Before you go: skip, pause, or swap?"
② If they pick pause → 1-3 month pause
Day 3: "Paused, not lost." Day 14: "Your skin misses [active]." Day 30: "Restart with free mini." Day 60: Final science nudge. Exit to general pool.
Touchpoint Map — Event-Driven (Adapts by Interval)
Welcome
Habit
Pre-Charge
Results / Mid-Cycle
Expansion (B)
12wk Only
6-Week Interval Subscriber
| Timing | Track | Email | Key Action |
|---|
| Day 0 | A | E1: Welcome | Membership welcome, routine card |
| Day 2 | A | E2: How to Use | Application guide, portal tour |
| Day 5 | A | E3: Schedule | Dates, frequency adjustment seed |
| Day 7 | A | E4: Check-In | Survey, save branch |
| Day 14 | A | E5: Social Proof | B&A, reviews |
| Day 18 | B | E5b: Complete Routine | Expansion (partial only) |
| Day 25 | A | E6: Science | Mechanism of action |
| Day ~37 | A | E7: Pre-Charge | Transparency + frequency check |
| ⚡ 1st RECURRING (~Day 42) |
| Post-delivery | A | E8: Results | Photo, review, frequency check |
| +3 weeks | B | E9: Level Up | Expansion (partial only) |
| Mid-cycle | A | E10: If You Stop | Loss aversion |
| 5 days before | A | E11: Pre-Charge | Milestone + frequency |
| ⚡ 2nd RECURRING (~Day 84) |
6-week subs: 12 Track A + 2 Track B = 14 emails in ~84 days (~1 every 6 days)
12-Week Interval Subscriber
| Timing | Track | Email | Key Action |
|---|
| Day 0 | A | E1: Welcome | Membership welcome, routine card |
| Day 2 | A | E2: How to Use | Application guide, portal tour |
| Day 5 | A | E3: Schedule | Dates, frequency adjustment seed |
| Day 7 | A | E4: Check-In | Survey, save branch |
| Day 14 | A | E5: Social Proof | B&A, reviews |
| Day 18 | B | E5b: Complete Routine | Expansion (partial only) |
| Day 25 | A | E6: Science | Mechanism of action |
| Week 4 | A | E6a: Month 1 Check | Week 4 expectations + B&A |
| Week 6 | A | E6b: 6-Week Results | Photo prompt + frequency check |
| Week 8 | A | E6c: Usage Check | "How's your supply?" — frequency adjust |
| 5 days before | A | E7: Pre-Charge | Transparency + frequency check |
| ⚡ 1st RECURRING (~Week 12) |
| Post-delivery | A | E8: Results | Photo, review, frequency check |
| +3 weeks | B | E9: Level Up | Expansion (partial only) |
| Mid-cycle | A | E10: Loss Aversion | Consistency science |
| Week 8 of cycle 2 | A | E10a: Usage Check | "How's your supply?" again |
| 5 days before | A | E11: Pre-Charge | Milestone + frequency |
| ⚡ 2nd RECURRING (~Week 24) |
12-week subs: 15 Track A + 2 Track B = 17 emails in ~168 days (~1 every 10 days)
💡 12-week subs get 3 additional mid-cycle emails
E6a (Week 4), E6b (Week 6), E6c (Week 8). These fill the 10-week silence gap that currently exists. E6c specifically asks "How's your supply?" and links to frequency adjustment — directly targeting the #1 cancel reason before it happens.
Klaviyo Architecture
| Component | Setup | Data |
|---|
| Flow trigger | "Skio: New Subscription Created" | Skio webhook |
| Interval split | Conditional: intervalCount × interval → 6wk vs 12wk path | intervalCount, interval |
| Product split (B) | subscriptionLines count < 4 or AOV < £100 | subscriptionLines, netSubscriptionTotal |
| Route split | productVariantSku → Clarity vs Radiance | subscriptionLines[].productVariantSku |
| Pre-charge | Separate flow: "Subscription Order Upcoming" | nextBillingDate |
| Cancel-save | Separate flow with reason-specific branches | cancelReason (Skio) |
| Suppression | Active F365 excluded from promo/discount | Active sub segment |
Key Segments
| Segment | Definition | Purpose |
|---|
| F365 12-Week Interval | Active, interval = 12 weeks | Additional mid-cycle emails |
| F365 6-Week Interval | Active, interval = 6 weeks | Standard cadence |
| F365 Partial Routine | Product count < 4 or AOV < £100 | Track B expansion |
| F365 Full Routine | Product count ≥ 4 or AOV ≥ £100 | Track A only |
| F365 At-Risk | skipCount ≥ 2 or CS flag | Proactive save |
| F365 Clarity / Radiance | SKU-based | Content personalisation |
| F365 Cancelled <60d | cancelledAt < 60 days | Winback |
Success Metrics
| Metric | Current | Target |
|---|
| Cancel-save rate (real) | 3.3% | 12-15% |
| Retention @ 1st recurring (no lock) | ~96% (locked) | 78-82% |
| Retention @ 2nd recurring (no lock) | ~81% (locked) | 62-68% |
| Avg order count | 3.23 (93% forced) | 3.5+ (all voluntary) |
| Avg AOV (expansion) | £56.21 | £65-75 |
| "Too much product" save rate | 6.64% | 20%+ |
| "Too expensive" save rate | 0.00% | 15%+ |
| Pre-charge open rate | N/A | >55% |
| Winback (60-day) | Unknown | 8-12% |
Build Priority (Updated)
| Priority | What | Revenue Impact | Time |
|---|
| P0 | Pre-charge (E7, E11) + Redesigned cancel-save + Suppression | ~£79K/yr (cancel save) + prevents cliff | 1-2 weeks |
| P1 | Welcome (E1-E3) + Check-in (E4) + Frequency seed | Foundational | 1 week |
| P1.5 | 12-week mid-cycle emails (E6a/b/c, E10a) + usage checks | Targets #1 cancel reason (27%) | 1 week |
| P2 | Social proof (E5) + Science (E6) + Results (E8) + Loss aversion (E10) | Targets #2 cancel reason (19%) | 2 weeks |
| P3 | Track B expansion (E5b, E9) | £548K-1.1M/yr potential | 1 week |
| P4 | 100-Day Club + quarterly + winback + referral | Medium | 1 week |
🚨 P0 is non-negotiable. P1.5 is the new high-impact addition.
The redesigned cancel-save flow alone could save ~700 additional subs/year (£79K). The 12-week mid-cycle emails directly target the #1 cancel reason (27% of all cancels) BEFORE people hit the cancel button.
✅ Total programme value
CRM retention recovery: £120-180K/yr
Redesigned cancel-save: ~£79K/yr
Routine expansion: £548K-1.1M/yr
Total: £747K-1.36M/yr